aslf010990's blog

By aslf010990, history, 4 months ago, In English,

Hello to all, the world final of acm icpc 2018 is very near, and as each year grows more expectations of knowing which team will be the great winner, here is my prediction of those who will occupy the podium this year. (my prediction is based on the average classification of each team)

    • Peking University (3052)
    • Moscow State University (2875)
    • Seoul National University (2850.33)
    • University of Warsaw (2845)
    • St. Petersburg ITMO University (2714)
    • Moscow Institute of Physics & Technology (2678)
    • University of Tokyo (2552)
    • University of New South Wales (2545)
    • Tsinghua University (2541.33)
    • Fudan University (2534.66)
    • St. Petersburg State University (2475)
    • KAIST (2469.33)
 
 
 
 
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4 months ago, # |
Rev. 2   Vote: I like it +13 Vote: I do not like it

My opinion:

  1. ITMO

  2. Peking

  3. MIPT

  4. Warsaw

  5. Seoul

  6. MSU

  7. Tsinghua

  8. Tokyo

  9. New South Wales

  10. KAIST

  11. Fudan

  12. Ural

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it -17 Vote: I do not like it

    Do you think that the team that has two world champions can beat the only team formed by 3 legendary masters? What do you think are the strengths that ITMO counts on to win the world final?

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      4 months ago, # ^ |
        Vote: I like it +13 Vote: I do not like it

      Do you think that the team that has two world champions can beat the only team formed by 3 legendary masters?

      What teams do you mean?

      What do you think are the strengths that ITMO counts on to win the world final?

      ITMO team was excellent at Moscow Workshops

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        4 months ago, # ^ |
          Vote: I like it -59 Vote: I do not like it

        TO THE TEAM OF THE PEKING UNIVERSITY, YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT THIS YEAR THEY ARE LOCAL AND IT MAY BE THAT HELPS THEM TO INSPIRE

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4 months ago, # |
Rev. 2   Vote: I like it +158 Vote: I do not like it
  1. Warsaw — ok, this is not most likely outcome, but it's definitely possible, so keep fingers crossed :)!
  2. ITMO — 7th win in a row for Petersburg? Isn't that a bit too much? Their ratings currently are not a match for ratings of other teams but this is just a bluff, they are very strong. And ITMO, apart from high skills seems to always have a luck and problemsets their way on WFs. By the way it is the same way as in tossing coin — even if you are strong and have 50% chances of winning WFs each year it is simply not possible to win 7 times in a row, right? So they will lose this time the same way as it is not possible to get seventh head after six heads.
  3. Seoul — doing very well on opencups etc. and dotorya recently does miracles on contests
  4. Peking — lol, I just noted that such team exists and it seems it is very strong (sad that jiry_2 isn't there), will they have sufficient experience in team contests?
  5. MSU — WFs promote experience and consistency rather than brilliance and that's why they won't win it (second place awaiting for them next year)
  6. MIT — if problemset would consist of tricky mathy combinatorics ksun48 could win it all by himself. But let's be honest — it won't contain any of such kind.
  7. KAIST — Go ko_osaga!
  8. Tsinghua — throwing in some random Asian teams I know nothing about consisting of three reds
  9. Fudan — throwing in some random Asian teams I know nothing about consisting of three reds
  10. Sharif (that one with Haghani) — take your revenge for declined visas last year
  11. SPbSU — it was a pleasure to try escaping from escape room with you xD
  12. Bucharest — cheering for anybody from Europe \setminus Russia the same way as people support competitors from small local villages :P + I like CSAcademy
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    ksun48 actually does a lot of the implementation on our team. The combinatorics problems are solved by me and cliu568.

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      4 months ago, # ^ |
        Vote: I like it +50 Vote: I do not like it

      Lol, one ACM team holding 8 gold IMO medals, omfg xD. This is incredible... My team had one silver (me) + one bronze (mnbvmar) and I thought this puts us really high in that measure compared to other ACM teams xD. And good to know that this inconspicuous violet guy from your team is actually that IMO monster.

      By the way I see why when having such team ksun48 can take over implementation problems, but this doesn't change a fact that I associate him with solving three combinatorics P6's on IMO and always solving very hard math combinatorics on AtCoder (simultaneously often missing easier problems :<)

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    no MIPT in top 12?

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      4 months ago, # ^ |
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      There was a huuge gap between UW+ITMO+MSU and others (which contained MIPT) on Petrozavodsk camp. I know that Alexander is very good at math, but as already said above — I don't expect this to be useful skill on WF (sadly). But of course I do not exclude such possibility, it is definitely possible + I did second half of these standings more carelessly/randomly, maybe I should have included them somewhere at bronze level.

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    I think you're missing a team :)

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    No. Minkyu (alex9801) will do everything, which team name literally says.

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Peking U have 4 LGM :kappa:

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Are tricky combinatorics questions outside the scope of ICPC ?

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    jiry_2 will compete...

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Actually, it's obvious that ITMO is going to win, they have SpyCheese.

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    3 months ago, # ^ |
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    Actually, jiry_2 and Syloviaely is the same person. QAQ.

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    3 months ago, # ^ |
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    Thank you so much for mentioning our team!!!

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    3 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it +36 Vote: I do not like it

    Nice reversed order!

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it +49 Vote: I do not like it

My prediction about the gold medal:

  1. University of Warsaw
  2. Seoul National University
  3. St. Petersburg ITMO University
  4. Moscow State University

BTW: I think the team members of Peking University are good actors rather than good competitors.

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4 months ago, # |
Rev. 2   Vote: I like it +48 Vote: I do not like it
  1. Peking University (Win: 40%, Gold: 90%, Medal: 100%)

Syloviaely is the best! PKU is the champion!

Imgur

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4 months ago, # |
Rev. 2   Vote: I like it +10 Vote: I do not like it
  1. Moscow SU
  2. ITMO
  3. Seoul NU
  4. Warsaw U
  5. Peking U
  6. MIPT
  7. Tokyo U
  8. Tsinghua U
  9. New South Wales U
  10. Fudan U
  11. MIT
  12. Ural FU
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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it +10 Vote: I do not like it
  1. ITMO U — I believe that top-5 teams from my list are roughly the same level and all of them can be champions, but when the question is "Who will be THE first" you bet on ITMO
  2. Seoul NU
  3. Peking U
  4. Warsaw U
  5. Moscow SU — Again, top-5 should be in no particular order, but when the question is "Who won't get gold" I bet on the least stable team
  6. U Tokyo
  7. Moscow IPT
  8. KAIST
  9. MIT
  10. U New South Wales
  11. Tsinghua U
  12. Ural FU
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4 months ago, # |
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  1. Kim Il Sung University
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4 months ago, # |
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  1. Seoul NU — They beat our team(Last year 3rd) at Regional :)
  2. ITMO U
  3. Moscow SU
  4. Peking U
  5. Warsaw U
  6. U Tokyo
  7. KAIST
  8. Moscow IPT
  9. Sharif
  10. MIT
  11. Tsinghua U
  12. U New South Wales
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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it +46 Vote: I do not like it

Tradionally, my prediction:

  1. Moscow SU. In this year they should be win.
  2. ITMO
  3. Warsaw U
  4. Peking U
  5. MIPT
  6. Seoul NU
  7. Tsinghua U
  8. Tokyo U
  9. SPb SU
  10. MIT
  11. Kazakh-British TU(Patriotic prediction).
  12. UNIST(Another Patriotic prediction).
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3 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it +33 Vote: I do not like it
  1. ITMO U
  2. Moscow SU
  3. Peking U
  4. Moscow IPT
  5. Seoul NU
  6. Warsaw U
  7. Tsinghua U
  8. MIT
  9. Shanghai JTU
  10. U New South Wales
  11. U Tokyo
  12. KAIST
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3 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it +28 Vote: I do not like it

There is no patriotic choices, just realistic prediction:

  1. Seoul National University
  2. University of Warsaw
  3. St. Petersburg ITMO University
  4. Peking University
  5. Moscow State University
  6. KAIST
  7. University of New South Wales
  8. Kazakh-British Technical University
  9. Moscow Institute of Physics & Technology
  10. Vilnius University
  11. University of Tokyo
  12. Tsinghua University
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3 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it +5 Vote: I do not like it

Let me make one pretty long shot here: Universidad de Córdoba will make Top 15, maybe even Top 10. mjhun is a monster!

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3 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it +3 Vote: I do not like it
  1. J̶i̶n̶o̶t̶e̶g̶a̶ Moscow State University
  2. Seoul National University
  3. Peking University
  4. St. Petersburg ITMO University
  5. University of Warsaw
  6. Moscow Institute of Physics & Technology
  7. University of Tokyo
  8. Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  9. Ural Federal University
  10. St. Petersburg State University
  11. Tsinghua University
  12. KAIST
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3 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it +122 Vote: I do not like it

I'm a bit surprised that nobody has joked about this yet, but:

  1. doesn't matter
  2. Moscow SU Red Panda
  3. doesn't matter
  4. doesn't matter
  5. doesn't matter
  6. doesn't matter
  7. doesn't matter
  8. doesn't matter
  9. doesn't matter
  10. doesn't matter
  11. doesn't matter
  12. doesn't matter
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    3 months ago, # ^ |
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    I joked about this, but with regard to next year :p

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3 months ago, # |
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My review of best teams (chances for medals and victory in % and the most likely absolute place with possible +/- error):

  • University of New South Wales — 70/25/7/1 — 10/4
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology — 45/15/4/<1 — 13/3
  • National Taiwan University — 45/10/2/<1 — 14/3
  • Seoul National University — 100/75/35/12 — 4/3
  • KAIST — 80/40/10/3 — 9/4
  • University of Tokyo — 60/25/7/1 — 10/5
  • Sharif University of Technology (from previous year) — 40/10/2/<1 — 15/6
  • Tsinghua University — 50/15/4/<1 — 12/4
  • Shanghai Jiao Tong University — 40/12/3/<1 — 13/4
  • Peking University — 100/80/40/15 — 3/2
  • Fudan University — 75/25/7/1 — 11/4
  • University of Bucharest — 45/10/2/<1 — 14/4
  • University of Warsaw — 100/60/25/8 — 4/3
  • Ural Federal University — 55/20/4/<1 — 12/3
  • St. Petersburg State University — 40/10/2/<1 — 14/3
  • St. Petersburg ITMO University — 100/90/50/15 — 2/1
  • Moscow State University — 100/65/25/7 — 4/3
  • Moscow Institute of Physics & Technology — 90/40/10/5 — 7/4

And quite subjective prediction:

  1. Peking U
  2. ITMO
  3. Seoul NU
  4. Warsaw U
  5. MSU
  6. KAIST
  7. MIPT
  8. Wales U
  9. Fudan U
  10. Tokyo U
  11. Ural FU
  12. Tsinghua U
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3 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

Easy for MSU <3 so proud of them