**1. Tsinghua** (Win: 40%, Gold: 90%, Medal: 100% after some rounding)↵
↵
- CF max: 3441, 3203, 2967 (agg = 3516)↵
- Open Cup: 1, 1, 11, 9 (median = 5)↵
- China Final: 1↵
↵
**2. Warsaw** (Win: 15%, Gold: 75%, Medal: 95%)↵
↵
- CF max: 3122, 2962, 2826 (agg = 3237)↵
- Open Cup: 2, 3 (median = 2.5)↵
- Petrozavodsk: 4, 2, 4, 3, 2, 2, 1, 2↵
↵
**3. SPb ITMO** (Win: 15%, Gold: 50%, Medal: 90%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2880, 2870, 2860 (agg = 3104)↵
- Open Cup: 7, 3, 2, 1, 13, 1, 2, 1, 3, 7, 13, 8, 8, 12, 3, 2, 1, 12 (median = 3)↵
- Petrozavodsk: 4, 1, 3, 1, 6, 5, 3, 7, 5↵
↵
**4. SPb SU** (Win: 10%, Gold: 40%, Medal: 85%)↵
↵
- CF max: 3170, 2951, 2936 (agg = 3281)↵
- Open Cup: 9, 21, 18, 5, 3, 4, 9, 9, 6, 1, 2, 2, 7, 1, 4, 23, 20, 4 (median = 5.5)↵
- Petrozavodsk: 7, 3, 6, 5, 8, 1, 4, 5, 1↵
↵
**5. Seoul** (Win: 5%, Gold: 40%, Medal: 85%)↵
↵
- CF max: 3174, 2919, 2760 (agg = 3250)↵
- Open Cup: 4, failed, 4 (median = 4)↵
↵
**6. MIPT** (Win: 5%, Gold: 30%, Medal: 75%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2928, 2757, 2756 (agg = 3063)↵
- Open Cup: 16, 29, 27, 28, 7, 24, 17, 15, 9, 15, 17, 3, 9, 4, 10 (median = 15)↵
- Petrozavodsk: 1, 5, 5, 5, 1, 6, 6, 1↵
↵
**7. MIT** (Win: 5%, Gold: 30%, Medal: 75%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2900, 2637, 2540 (agg = 2981)↵
- Open Cup: Equivalent to 2.5 in NAIPC↵
↵
**8. Waterloo** (Gold: 10%, Medal: 65%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2925, 2908, 2703 (agg = 3100)↵
- Open Cup: Equivalent to 12.5 in NAIPC↵
↵
**9. New South Wales** (Gold: 10%, Medal: 60%)↵
↵
- CF max: 3073, 2429, 2006 (agg = 3082)↵
- Open Cup: 6, 8, 16 (median = 8)↵
↵
**10. KTH** (Gold: 5%, Medal: 55%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2761, 2637, 2273 (agg = 2870)↵
- Open Cup: 2, 17, failed, 7 (median = 12)↵
↵
**11. Tokyo** (Medal: 55%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2762, 2694, 2424 (agg = 2903)↵
- Open Cup: 29, 5, 10, 12, 14, 29 (median = 13)↵
↵
**12. NTU** (Medal: 50%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2772, 2341, 2220 (agg = 2808)↵
- Open Cup: 11, 15, 21, 10, 2 (median = 11)↵
↵
I won't be surprised if the following teams get a medal:↵
↵
**13. Fudan** (Medal: 50%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2543, 2367, 2327 (agg = 2667)↵
- Open Cup: 6, 13, 9, 6, 13, 18 (median = 11)↵
- China Final: 5↵
↵
**14. Perm SU** (Medal: 45%)↵
↵
- CF max: 3037, 2850, 2578 (agg = 3127)↵
- Open Cup: 6, 18, failed, 3, failed, 9, 18, 7, 24, 15, 14, 16, 16, 7, 21, 16, 21, 17 (median = 16)↵
- Petrozavodsk: 8, 12, 10, 14, 10, 10, 2, 6, 6↵
↵
**15. Helsinki** (Medal: 45%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2721, 2280, 1516 (agg = 2745)↵
- Open Cup: 15, failed, 9, failed, 16, 4, 17, 11, 30, 18, 2, failed, 8 (median = 16)↵
- Petrozavodsk: 3, 26, 25, 11, 11, 7, 10, 2, 9↵
↵
**16. SJTU** (Medal: 45%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2707, 2609, 2582 (agg = 2874)↵
- Open Cup: 26, 3, 18, failed, 21, 12, 10, 20, 26, 14 (median = 19)↵
- China Final: 2↵
↵
**17. Peking** (Medal: 35%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2920, 2566, 2338 (agg = 2965)↵
- Open Cup: 21, 3 (median = 12)↵
- China Final: 6↵
↵
**18. Hong Kong** (Medal: 35%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2825, 2625, 2604 (agg = 2943)↵
- China Final: 3↵
↵
===↵
↵
- Expected win of top 7 = 0.95↵
- Expected gold of top 10 = 3.8↵
- Expected medal of top 18 = 11.45↵
↵
And I guess Tokyo Institute of Technology will be around 25th, Keio will be around 40th.↵
↵
↵
- CF max: 3441, 3203, 2967 (agg = 3516)↵
- Open Cup: 1, 1, 11, 9 (median = 5)↵
- China Final: 1↵
↵
**2. Warsaw** (Win: 15%, Gold: 75%, Medal: 95%)↵
↵
- CF max: 3122, 2962, 2826 (agg = 3237)↵
- Open Cup: 2, 3 (median = 2.5)↵
- Petrozavodsk: 4, 2, 4, 3, 2, 2, 1, 2↵
↵
**3. SPb ITMO** (Win: 15%, Gold: 50%, Medal: 90%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2880, 2870, 2860 (agg = 3104)↵
- Open Cup: 7, 3, 2, 1, 13, 1, 2, 1, 3, 7, 13, 8, 8, 12, 3, 2, 1, 12 (median = 3)↵
- Petrozavodsk: 4, 1, 3, 1, 6, 5, 3, 7, 5↵
↵
**4. SPb SU** (Win: 10%, Gold: 40%, Medal: 85%)↵
↵
- CF max: 3170, 2951, 2936 (agg = 3281)↵
- Open Cup: 9, 21, 18, 5, 3, 4, 9, 9, 6, 1, 2, 2, 7, 1, 4, 23, 20, 4 (median = 5.5)↵
- Petrozavodsk: 7, 3, 6, 5, 8, 1, 4, 5, 1↵
↵
**5. Seoul** (Win: 5%, Gold: 40%, Medal: 85%)↵
↵
- CF max: 3174, 2919, 2760 (agg = 3250)↵
- Open Cup: 4, failed, 4 (median = 4)↵
↵
**6. MIPT** (Win: 5%, Gold: 30%, Medal: 75%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2928, 2757, 2756 (agg = 3063)↵
- Open Cup: 16, 29, 27, 28, 7, 24, 17, 15, 9, 15, 17, 3, 9, 4, 10 (median = 15)↵
- Petrozavodsk: 1, 5, 5, 5, 1, 6, 6, 1↵
↵
**7. MIT** (Win: 5%, Gold: 30%, Medal: 75%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2900, 2637, 2540 (agg = 2981)↵
- Open Cup: Equivalent to 2.5 in NAIPC↵
↵
**8. Waterloo** (Gold: 10%, Medal: 65%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2925, 2908, 2703 (agg = 3100)↵
- Open Cup: Equivalent to 12.5 in NAIPC↵
↵
**9. New South Wales** (Gold: 10%, Medal: 60%)↵
↵
- CF max: 3073, 2429, 2006 (agg = 3082)↵
- Open Cup: 6, 8, 16 (median = 8)↵
↵
**10. KTH** (Gold: 5%, Medal: 55%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2761, 2637, 2273 (agg = 2870)↵
- Open Cup: 2, 17, failed, 7 (median = 12)↵
↵
**11. Tokyo** (Medal: 55%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2762, 2694, 2424 (agg = 2903)↵
- Open Cup: 29, 5, 10, 12, 14, 29 (median = 13)↵
↵
**12. NTU** (Medal: 50%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2772, 2341, 2220 (agg = 2808)↵
- Open Cup: 11, 15, 21, 10, 2 (median = 11)↵
↵
I won't be surprised if the following teams get a medal:↵
↵
**13. Fudan** (Medal: 50%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2543, 2367, 2327 (agg = 2667)↵
- Open Cup: 6, 13, 9, 6, 13, 18 (median = 11)↵
- China Final: 5↵
↵
**14. Perm SU** (Medal: 45%)↵
↵
- CF max: 3037, 2850, 2578 (agg = 3127)↵
- Open Cup: 6, 18, failed, 3, failed, 9, 18, 7, 24, 15, 14, 16, 16, 7, 21, 16, 21, 17 (median = 16)↵
- Petrozavodsk: 8, 12, 10, 14, 10, 10, 2, 6, 6↵
↵
**15. Helsinki** (Medal: 45%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2721, 2280, 1516 (agg = 2745)↵
- Open Cup: 15, failed, 9, failed, 16, 4, 17, 11, 30, 18, 2, failed, 8 (median = 16)↵
- Petrozavodsk: 3, 26, 25, 11, 11, 7, 10, 2, 9↵
↵
**16. SJTU** (Medal: 45%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2707, 2609, 2582 (agg = 2874)↵
- Open Cup: 26, 3, 18, failed, 21, 12, 10, 20, 26, 14 (median = 19)↵
- China Final: 2↵
↵
**17. Peking** (Medal: 35%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2920, 2566, 2338 (agg = 2965)↵
- Open Cup: 21, 3 (median = 12)↵
- China Final: 6↵
↵
**18. Hong Kong** (Medal: 35%)↵
↵
- CF max: 2825, 2625, 2604 (agg = 2943)↵
- China Final: 3↵
↵
===↵
↵
- Expected win of top 7 = 0.95↵
- Expected gold of top 10 = 3.8↵
- Expected medal of top 18 = 11.45↵
↵
And I guess Tokyo Institute of Technology will be around 25th, Keio will be around 40th.↵
↵
